中文
A new survey by well-known shipping consulting firm Drewry shows that over half of the shipping industry respondents predict that the container ship market will fully recover from the Red Sea shipping routes by 2025.
The survey covered 300 individuals related to the shipping industry, and its results are consistent with the predictions of Osama Rabie, the director of the Suez Canal Authority. Rabie expects that from the end of March, the shipping volume of the Suez Canal will gradually return to normal.
Among them, 29% of the respondents hold a relatively conservative attitude, believing that container shipping may not return to the Red Sea until 2026. Drewry said, 'We estimate that the diversion of the Red Sea route has reduced the effective capacity of container shipping by about 9%. When these capacities return to the market, shipping companies will face pressure to lower freight rates unless they can rebalance supply and demand through other means
Although the industry is mostly optimistic about the reopening of the Red Sea, Drewry emphasized that the situation in the region is still very fragile. Delury pointed out, 'The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is extremely fragile, and Trump's intervention has made the situation even more unpredictable. Shortly after the investigation was completed, US President Trump violated diplomatic practice by calling on Israel to cancel the ceasefire agreement and threatened to 'completely spiral out of control' if all hostages were not released by noon on February 15th. Subsequently, Hamas announced the postponement of the originally scheduled hostage release plan
In addition, the Houthi militants in Yemen have announced that they will launch attacks on Israel if it does not comply with the ceasefire agreement. This news has clearly caused a response in the shipping industry. Investment bank Jefferies pointed out in an analysis report that container futures prices have risen for four consecutive days, especially with the increasingly active trading of the SCFI Asia Europe route index since its launch in 2023. Jeffrey said, 'The news yesterday about the possible rupture of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas due to differences seems to have boosted market sentiment, because if the ceasefire agreement is broken, it is unlikely that the Red Sea route will resume in the short term
Meanwhile, Delury also investigated the shipping industry's views on Trump's recent announcement of punitive tariffs on multiple countries. The respondents were asked to predict the effective tariff rate of the United States by the end of 2025 (total tariff amount/total customs value). 32% of respondents believe that the tax rate will be between 5% and 10%, while the expectation in September last year was only 2.4%. In addition, 13% of respondents expect the tax rate to reach as high as 20%, a level not seen since the Great Depression in 1929. The respondents expect that punitive tariffs will mainly target China, Mexico, and Canada.
