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The latest data from DNV's Alternative Fuel Insight (AFI) platform shows that the global new shipbuilding market will perform particularly well in 2024, with a significant increase in orders for alternative fuel ships, reaching 515 ships (excluding LNG carriers), a 38% increase compared to 2023, highlighting the shipping industry's commitment to decarbonization.
In the past three years, the growth of orders for alternative fuel ships has mainly come from container ships and automobile transport ships. Especially in 2024, with the combination of shippers responding to consumers' demand for more sustainable practices and shipping companies planning to replace old ships, 69% of container ship orders chose alternative fuels, with liquefied natural gas (LNG) being the preferred fuel (67%). Container ships and automobile transport ships together account for 62% of all alternative fuel vessel orders in 2024.
Of course, LNG is not the only fuel considered by ship owners, and new fuels such as methanol, ammonia, hydrogen, and LPG have also become options for ship owners to bet on. Methanol fuel ship orders (accounting for 32% of AFI orders) reached 166, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Most of these methanol orders (85 vessels) are container ships. After the booming development of methanol from 2023 to early 2024, LNG reversed the trend of alternative fuels, and by the end of the year, LNG had secured its position as the preferred alternative fuel in the industry. The number of LNG powered vessel orders in 2024 is 264, more than double the 130 orders in 2023.
Ammonia fuel showed good momentum in the early months of 2024 and maintained full year growth, with a total order volume of 27 ships. It is worth noting that the first batch of non gas transport ships' orders for ammonia fuel vessels have reached 10 (mainly bulk carriers, 5), reflecting the market potential of ammonia fuel.
Behind the rapid rise in orders for new ships using alternative fuels, issues such as fuel supply, investment of technical personnel, and industry collaboration also require active efforts from the industry. Knut? Rbeck Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime, pointed out that the shipping industry has been committed to decarbonization, and the growth of alternative fuel ships in the past few years is encouraging. The technological transformation is underway, but the supply of alternative fuels remains low. In terms of the industry, we need to collaborate with fuel suppliers and other stakeholders to ensure that the shipping industry can obtain a matching share of alternative fuels in the future. Ensuring the safety of seafarers is also extremely important during the transformation process. This requires investment in skill enhancement and training
In terms of the delivery of new ships using alternative fuels, the number of new LNG fuel ships doubled from 2021 to 2024, with a new high of 169 ships delivered in 2024. As of the end of 2024, there are a total of 641 LNG powered ships in operation. According to AFI order forecasts, this number is expected to double by the end of the 2020s.
Although the refueling infrastructure for some alternative fuels is still incomplete, LNG refueling is constantly maturing. Last year, the number of LNG refueling ships in operation increased from 52 to 64, and it is expected to continue to grow in 2025. According to AFI orders, the significant gap between LNG refueling supply and demand is expected to further widen in the next five years. Developing appropriate infrastructure for alternative fuels (including ships and refueling) to address this challenge can create demand and stimulate long-term fuel production. With the EU's 'Fit for 55' regulatory package requiring a large number of ports to establish LNG refueling infrastructure, it is expected that the number of ports capable of refueling liquefied natural gas will increase.
Jason Stefanatos, Global Director of Decarbonization at DNV, said, 'Market conditions, infrastructure development, the latest developments in fuel production, and the demands of shippers will all have short-term and long-term impacts on the demand for different fuels. The changing trend of LNG and methanol fuel ship orders in 2024 may be due to slow production of green methanol. In the long run, green methanol has the potential to become a part of the energy mix along with ammonia. At the same time, benefiting from existing infrastructure and short-term emission reduction requirements, LNG provides an important transitional fuel option and may also serve as a long-term solution, but this depends on the availability and price competitiveness of renewable natural gas (RNG)
